MLB Season Preview - AL Edition

It’s been a long time since there has been any sort of hope for baseball fans in Toronto. Not since Joe Carter leapt around the base paths, circling a devastated mullet-wearing closer, was this city in jubilation over their boys of summer. That all should change this year though, finally the pieces are in place for a wild summer. Let’s take a closer look at how the American League will play out and who the eventual winners will be.

AL East

In arguably the most competitive division in baseball, things just don’t come easy in the AL East. This off-season was a little different than years past, not as many big names packed their bags and headed to the East Coast to dawn the pinstripes, become an idiot or take a huge tax hit, but still, the sense that the eventual champion will have to roll through one of the cities that comprise the American League East stands true.

One team who will soon be able to play with the big boys again will be the Baltimore Orioles. They have built a strong team over the past few years but are still a few pieces away from really contending with the likes of Toronto, Boston or NY. The addition of Aubrey Huff, who will spend time both at first base and in left field, was a nice move. Huff will be able to provide some pop from the left side and play solid defense at first base. The evolution of the Orioles young players will be the most rewarding thing to watch for the crab-loving O’s faithful. Right fielder Nick Markakis showed the league what he was capable of last year, as he hit 20 HR and played remarkable in the second half of the season. He’s got big pop in his bat, showed good plate discipline and should fit nicely in the middle of the O’s lineup for years to come. The real coming out party however should be reserved for Baltimore ace-in-the-making Erik Bedard.

Bedard showed that he had the stuff to solidify his stance as the team’s ace and will need to be just that for the O’s to stay in contention. Assisting him in their quest to regain respectability will be youngsters Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen. Cabrera and Loewen aren’t much alike, Cabrera throwing sizzling hot, razor sharp fastballs and sliders, while Loewen slings as a southpaw and combines a power fastball with a big hook. Look out for these two to finally take that big step forward everyone has been predicting, especially after a full year of tutelage under Leo Mazzone.

The other team who will be fun to watch will be the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Once they can build on their uber-athleticism and freak abilities this team will be in contention for years to come, that is, if they can keep their home grown talent. It’s been a long time at the bottom of the standings for the Rays and although the influx of top-tier prospects will help, this team is still a few strong arms and a couple years of learning the ropes in the Bigs away from the top of the division. It looks as though B.J. Upton won’t have to be the super-utility guy Chone Figgins has become as Jorge Cantu was sent down for assignment with the Tripe-A affiliate. His progress, and everyday job, will be dependent on his ability to play solid defensively and show us why he was a top pick. Also, make sure to keep an eye on the one player from Japan who’s been flying under the radar. Akinori Iwamura is a very foundamentally sound third baseman who can hit for great average like many Japanese players, but does possess pop and can snag a bag if need be. Where things get really fun is in the outfield.

Delmon Young is up for his first year with the big club and should not disappoint. If he can keep his emotions intact he’ll be a star. One situation to keep an eye on will be the health of Rocco Baldelli. He was almost sidelined again near the end of the spring, but did start the year on the Rays 25-man roster. If Rocco goes down, look for another star prospect to take his place. Elijah Dukes has that rare combination of speed and power and has been scouted as having more plate discipline than Young. If Dukes gets a shot, he could churn big dividends for the Rays not only this year but for many years to come. Either that, or him and Young get caught up in the limelight and end up on the front page of the newspaper after being detained and arrested outside a club in Miami, like I said, things will be interesting.

When trying to predict who will come out of the East, it invariably comes down to three clubs; New York, Boston and Toronto. For the first time in over ten years the Blue Jays were able to leapfrog the Red Sox for second in the division and make claim to being legitimate contenders. What this race will come down to is pitching. All three teams have lineups that can mash, where games will be won is on the mound.

When looking at the projected pitching rotations there are many questions to be answered. Will Mussina, Pettitte and Pavano stay healthy? What’s to expect of Kei Igawa and how much weight can be put on the shoulders of an aging bullpen? Were the Red Sox crazy to pay all that money for Dice-K? How will Schillings body hold up this year? Will Josh Beckett be able to find the form that made him such a hot commodity only a few years ago? Will Jonathon Papelbon’s arm stay in socket while he throws sporadically out of the bullpen? And then you have the Blue Jays who are wondering; Will AJ Burnett stay healthy and show what he can do over a full season? Who will step up and take over the fourth and fifth starter roles? How will Gustavo Chacin bounce back after an injury riddle sophomore season? Well here are a few projections:

The Yankees staff will suffer. They will fall ill to the injury bug and be searching for a savior, who, will fittingly come in the likes of Roger Clemens. This is why I hate the Yankees. Igawa will be solid as a fourth or fifth starter and should provide some stability at the back end of the rotation. And if things go exceedingly well, we’ll see the highly touted Phil Hughes pitching in Yankee Stadium sooner rather than later, but don’t hold your breath on that one, the Yankees will make sure he’s fully ready before throwing him to the wolves.

Dice-K will live up to the hype. With his deceptive delivery and competitive nature, he will be everything the Red Sox hoped for. It also helps that I was able to snag him in the first round of my Fantasy Keeper League second year draft, for me to look at him in the most positive of light. Schilling should be able to curtail any decline that may be forthcoming as he should look to rest and mend to any injuries (both big and small) in the most efficient manner. Beckett will show that his homerun rates are still too high and that he is still only a #3 starter on a good team, at best, especially in the slugging AL East. And as for Papelbon, well, the kid has got everything you’d want in a closer. He loves to take the ball with everything on the line, he showed he’s capable of dominating at this level and has the desire to close games burning inside of him. He’ll be solid coming in the ninth and is vital to the Sox chances.

Burnett will finally show everyone why there is always so much hype built up around him. He was electric in the spring this year and now has added a nasty change up to his arsenal. Teamed with Halladay at the front of the rotation, the two should make-up one of the best 1-2 punches in the Major Leagues. Chacin will have some problems, but should be able to work through them and if he can continue to deceive hitters with his jerky motion to the plate, should fit in nicely in the middle of the rotation. Tomo Ohka, Josh Tower and Victor Zambrano will all vie for the fifth starters gig and if any of them falters there are Scott Downs, Shawn Marcum and Casey Janssen looking to come in and make their mark.

Overall I think that the Yankees have the most complete lineup top-to-bottom, but those kinds of things happen when you spend over $200M. This years winner of the AL however, will come from north of the border. The Jays should come out of the gates running and have the lineup to compete every night. If the pitching isn’t there, then the bats will take precedence lead by a monster year from Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. The Jays play the type of ball that fans can appreciate and as the temperature starts to climb in TO, fans will finally start pouring into Rogers Centre the way the did when we were calling it the Dome.

AL East Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
AL East Fantasy Sleepers: Alex Rios (Tor), Nick Markakis (Bal), Daniel Cabrera (Bal), Adam Loewen (Bal), Delmon Young (TB), James Shields (TB), Elijah Dukes (TB), Phil Hugues (NYY), Roger Clemens (NYY??)

AL Central

The Central is going to be a very competitive division again this year. With the Twins sneaking out the division over the Tigers in the last week of the season last year, both teams will be looking for the same destination again this fall. They’ll get stiff competition from the White Sox and Indians. As for the Royals, well they’ll be better, but still not very good.

The Tigers have a very well rounded line up to begin with, then went and added a huge slugger, although an aging slugger, in Gary Sheffield. Expect Shef to come out swinging. He’s a veteran who was cast out of the Bronx after the Yanks went and picked up Abreu late last season and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Correction: a HUGE chip on his shoulder. He’s the type of player who doesn’t take being let go lightly, especially when he feels he has a lot still left in the tank. Look for Shef to add a very potent piece to the middle of the Tigers already well balanced lineup.

Jeremy Bonderman should take the final step in becoming the true ace the people in Motown already know he is. Remember, he is only 24 years old. That’s some major experience to have under your belt and still be one of the youngest guys in the clubhouse. Bondo has been through everything, literally, and that will only help him take the next step in his career, look for big things from this young-vet. With Rogers out until the middle of the season, much will be asked of both Justin Verlander and Nate Robinson, yah, again. As long as both pitchers are monitored well and kept at reasonable pitch counts, they should be solid, especially with the help of a full healthy Mike Maroth. Look for Detroit to once again be heavily in the mix of teams battling for one of the coveted playoff spots out of the Central.

One team that really has worn old on me are those other guys in Chi-town. After hearing Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen continually talk smack, or as either the media or they themselves like to put it, with heart and passion, I have got to the point of hoping the next time they open their mouths it will be as if I pushed the mute button and I’ll only see their lips move. That would be refreshing. Unfortunately, we’ll be in store for more smack talk. The White Sox return many of the same old faces and that’s why they’ll be in things near the end of the year.

Williams has brought in a few young arms through the McCarthy and Garcia deals in the likes of John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Sisco. Somehow he’s able to continually find teams who want to deal top pitching prospects away and there is no doubt that one of the four will turn into a main-stay within the White Sox organization. I do have to give credit where credit is due, and Kenny Williams is a very good talent evaluator and has a knack for getting things accomplished. The White Sox will be in the hunt, but may find themselves on the outside as the Central is stacked with high quality teams.

The Tribe will be a very fun team to watch this year. A few storylines to follow include the evolution of Grady Sizemore into one of the games top all-around players, Cronk’s chase of the MVP award and his mission to dismiss any notion that a designated hitter cannot win the award, how laser eye surgery should bring Jhonny Peralta’s game back to what it was only two short years ago, watching CC dominate and take a run at the top pitching honours in the AL, newly acquired Josh Barfield run wild on the base paths, and how Jeremy Sowers and Andy Marte will show why they have starting spots on the big club at such a young age. This should be a big bounce back year for the Tribe as they can put up runs with any other team, not only in the Central, but in all of baseball. If a newly stacked bullpen, and healthy starting staff can be consistent, look for the Indians to be the odds on favourite to take the division.

Having the league batting champion, a Cy Young pitcher and the AL MVP all on one team, you’d expect me to be a little more excited, but alas, I can’t get too worked up over the Minnesota Twins. Joe Mauer, Johan Santana and Justin Morneau are all out-of-this-world ball players who will continue to carry this team until their current contracts that amount to peanuts runs out and they hit the free-agent market looking to stabilize their grandchildren’s financial status. The Twins area of concern, like many teams, is with their starting pitching. With rookie sensation Fransisco Lirano sidelined for the entire season and Brad Radke retiring, the likes of Ramon Ortiz, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva and Sidney Ponson will need to fill the void. Relying on old, name changing, over-weight pitchers is not usually a promising proposition, however, Twins brass seems to always find a way to build a winner so you can expect the Twins to hang around long enough to give the Metrodome faithful something to cheer about. If any of these pitchers slips up though, look for top-prospect Matt Garza to get the call and make an impact.

Rounding out the highly competitive Central Division are the Kansas City Royals. The Royals made a lot of headlines in the off-season, first by spending $55M on Gil Meche, who will silence his critics and show that he’s got fantastic stuff, and then by promoting the Minor League Player of the Year up to the Show. Alex Gordon has all the tools to become a very good pro; he works diligently, has got phenomenal athletic gifts, and has dominated the competition at every level. He, along with Ryan Shealy, Tony Pena Jr. and Mark Teahen will make the Royals a team you should keep an eye on, if not for this year, then definitely in the very near future. Another young stud working his way up the ranks is Billy Butler. Butler has been touted as a better pure athlete than Gordon and if he comes to fruition will make the Royals a very dangerous team, something that hasn’t been said in far too long.

AL Central Champs: Cleveland Indians
AL Central Fantasy Sleepers: John Danks (Chi), Josh Fields (Chi), Jhonny Peralta (Cle), Andy Marte (Cle), Ryan Shealy (KC), Alex Gordon (KC), Tony Pena Jr. (KC), Mark Teahen (KC), Octavio Dotel (KC), Torii Hunter (Min), Boof Bonser (Min), Matt Garza (Min)

AL West

In a division with only four teams, you would expect rivalries to be heated and that’s exactly what we get from the AL West. The reigning champs LA Angels have added to their already explosive bullpen and look to make claim to once again being the best there is to offer from the West Coast. Baseball is played with more of an old school feel out West. Games are kept tight by supreme pitching, managers using more of an NL-mind set when crafting their game plans, and by the end of the game many jerseys are dirty from running hard on the base paths and playing solid defense.

The Angels look to have one of the top clubs out of the four again this year. They’ll start the season with Colon and Jared Weaver on the disabled list but will still expect strong outings from their men on the hill. John Lackey will continue to evolve into one of baseballs most reliable front line pitchers and open more people’s eyes during the process. He may not be the flashiest, but he gets the job done with extreme efficiency and continually gives his team a chance to win. If the starters are able to get to at least the 5th or 6th innings in games, the superb Angels bullpen newly restocked with Justin Spier and Darren Oliver parlayed with Scot Sheilds and Frankie Rodriguez will keep teams shut down in the latter parts of games.

A major hole the Angels weren’t able to fill was to provide Vladdy with a partner in crime to slug balls into the rock façade in centre field. They did acquire alleged-HGH culprit Gary Matthews Jr. from Texas, but didn’t land the Soriano or Carlos Lee they were hoping to get. The Angels do however possess some of the best young talent in all of baseball. First basemen Casey Kotchman will try and become more consistent in his second full season in the big leagues. Second baseman Howie Kendrick will try and live up to all the batting-champ hype that has been circling around the young man’s head for the past four months. Then the slick middle infield combo of Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood is set to make their mark in the Show. Both will start in a reserve role or down with the Triple-A affiliate, but look for them to make their call up and produce at the big stage sometime later this summer. Over the past two seasons Wood hit a combined 67HR at two levels of the minor leagues, and for a short stop, has immense potential. He may however be moved over to third base to accommodate Orlando Cabrera, but no matter where he fits into the mold, should produce big numbers.

The Oakland Athletics lost the final piece of the Big-3. Barry Zito finally priced himself out of Oakland’s cheque books, packed his bags, and headed a few miles away to San Francisco. The move will be viewed at as a last ditch effort by Giants management to try and sugar coat a season that will be marred with Bonds questions and the deeply rooted and often discussed crisis of performance enhancing drugs and their place within sports. Oakland was smart to let Zito walk. All of his performance-telling stats have declined. His walk rates are up, strikeout rates are down. He’s letting up more homeruns than ever in his career and has seen his velocity continually dip. This will be the season in which Rich Harden has a coming out party. Harden is a true ace, but needs to stay in the rotation. If he can make 30-35 starts this year, look for his name to be there with Santana’s and Halladay’s when we’re giving out Cy Young awards. Another big time performing will be Dan Haren who, like John Lackey, doesn’t get much of the attention but continually goes out, does his job, and leaves his team in a great spot to win.

Shannon Stewart was added to the outfield, and should put up decent numbers as he has over his entire career. One player to keep an eye on for a monster year is Milton Bradley. With no other primetime bat in the A’s lineup, well, other than a resurgence year from Mike Piazza similar to Frank Thomas and unless Eric Chavez can find his stroke again, Bradley will be the man to step up. Oakland should be competitive as always, but may fall just short of another post season birth.

The Texas Rangers will be looking to their franchise players to lead by example. Teixeira, Young and Blalock will need to have strong seasons from April to the end of September if this Rangers team is going to be in the mix of things at the end of the year. They should also get a very nice surprise from young second basemen Ian Kinsler who has pop in his bat and will be a very nice compliment to the big three. Look for a breakout season from him.

The Rangers added hard throwing right hander Brandon McCarthy to the staff from Chicago and are expecting very good things from the youngster. McCarthy will finally get a shot to do what Ozzie Guillen didn’t allow him to do, start games, this year, and should have a nice campaign if he can keep the ball in the yard. The Rangers will also look to the injury plagued Eric Gagne for security late in games. Gagne was signed this off-season after missing almost two full seasons with the Dodgers due to arm problems. He’ll start the season on the DL to get in a little more work and should be with the club after the first few weeks. Don’t expect much from this Rangers team however, as their Achilles heel has always been and will continue to be their staff.

Rounding out the West are the Seattle Mariners. The M’s went out and made some changes this off-season. Even with the influx of some new blood, this is still not a very deep or strong team. Jose Guillen will be the new right fielder and you can expect a melt-down by mid June. A lot of money was spent to try to and beef up the starting rotation and in the likes of Jeff Weaver and Miguel Batista, I wouldn’t feel to secure. Battista may however become more vital in another way. He and superstar-to-be Felix Hernandez have really hit it off and Battista is acting as King Felix’s defacto mentor. It should serve the youngster good to have someone to relate to, especially since they have the same roots, and somewhere to find guidance. Although if he keeps conversations focused strictly on pitching, Battista may not be the right guy for the job.

Seattle will face its biggest challenge this off -season however. That’s when Mr. Ichiro Suzuki will become a free agent, and the M’s need to prove this is not a wasteland and that Suzuki has a legitimate shot at winning a World Series, if not, we could see the star elsewhere come next April.

AL West Champ: LA Angels
AL West Fantasy Sleepers: Brandon Wood (LAA), Milton Bradley (Oak), Mike Piazza (Oak), Ian Kinsler (Tex)

AL Wildcard: Detroit Tigers

- JW