Liddell (20-3-0) vs. Jackson (26-6-0)

In one of the most highly anticipated bouts of the year, Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell will defend his 205lbs UFC light-heavyweight title against 'God's Street Soldier,' Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. Liddell (20-3-0) has been on a mission to avenge the three losses that blemish his impressive record in a career spanning nearly 10 years, fighting at the elite level that is the UFC. First, it was hall of famer Randy Couture, then, long time MMA stand-out Jeremy Horn; now, Liddell seeks to complete the trio this saturday night from the MGM Grand in downtown Las Vegas Nevada, predicting a first round KO of long time PRIDE FC contender "Rampage" Jackson (26-6-0).

Because there is history here, the fight becomes all the more compelling. When these two squared off last, it was in Japan (a market that was familiar with, and embraced Rampage as a superstar of the sport), and under PRIDE FC rules. At that time, Rampage was just 24 years of age and at the time considered by most MMA authorities as being the #2 ranked LHW fighter in the world (behind long time Pride Monarch Wanderlei Silva). Jackson brought the heat to Liddell that night, pressing him from start to finish. As the bout wore on, it was evident that Rampage possessed the better conditioning, and under PRIDE rules, where the first round is 10 minutes in length, he was able to utilize that advantage. The second round of action saw Jackson take Liddell to the mat, and pummel him with blows until a referee stoppage roughly 2 minutes into the round.

Expect this contest to play out differently though. Liddell has been pushing his conditioning hard, found new confidence in capturing a long sought after UFC title, and at 37 years of age, he hasn’t appeared to lose even the slightest step defeating his last 7 opponents by way of TKO/KO. The first round is only 5 minutes, and simply getting Chuck pressed up against the cage, does not by any means guarantee a takedown is inevitable. If there’s one aspect of his game that Chuck has mastered, it’s commanding the octagon and ring generalship.

The timing of this fight makes me believe that the odds are stacked slightly in Liddell’s favor for the following reasons; a) confidence b) activity, and c) awareness. Liddell’s streak of late has been impressive and confidence for him is at an all time high. Rampage has only had two fights in the past year, and just one inside of the UFCs octagon which is where awareness might play a factor. Regardless, expect sparks to fly, and expect excitement on all levels because neither of these guys are interested in squeaking out a decision.

Keys to the Fight

Liddell has to keep Jackson on the outside with constant jabs, and stay away from focusing only on the one big shot. Liddell is however, a former US National kickboxing champion, so needless-to-say, he knows how to throw em’. His takedown defense is among the best in the world, and this will again be a major key to his success. He cannot allow Jackson to get a body lock on him, because what goes up, must come down and slams are Rampage’s forte. Neither guy has a great submission game, but both are able to defend well against submissions, so don’t expect that aspect of the game to play a major factor in this one. Rampage is well versed in strikes, but he’s not as crisp as Liddell. Explosiveness, athleticism, and quickness has to go to Jackson, so pushing the pace will be a necessity in finding success.

“The Natural”, Randy Couture put himself out there this past week by declaring that he’s predicting the upset this weekend, with a belief that Rampage has all the tools to dethrone the reigning champ, but I’m going to lean in the opposite direction with this one. Although my heart will be with Rampage, my head says that the current circumstances under which this fight is taking place are favoring Chuck, and for that reason (timing), I’m going to predict a Chuck Liddell TKO victory via Ref stoppage.

DD

UFC 66: Liddell vs. Ortiz...Dec. 30th

Tito Ortiz (15-4) vs. Chuck Liddell (19-3) @ UFC 66

Chuck Liddell (LHW Champion) vs. Tito Ortiz (former LHW Champion) on December 30th offers that classic striker vs grappler match up that has intrigued the minds of MMA fans throughout the world. Former training partners, and now long time rivals, the two have stepped foot in the Octagon head to head only once before. That fight saw Liddell send Ortiz to the matt following a barrage of punches, prompting 'Big' John McCarthy to stop the contest during second round action. As is often the case, a little bit of controversy was to follow; Tito, sporting a nice gash under his right eye, would have been the first to tell you that it was in fact, a thumb nail that caused the cutt, effectively disabling Ortiz's vision. This was not the first time such a charge had been made against Liddell, and it certainly wasn't the last.

Regardless of all that, Chuck maintains that he is in Tito's head, something that Ortiz himself admits may have been the case years ago, but claims today he is affraid of no man at 205lbs. This brings us to our first fight factor; is there a mental edge in Liddell's corner? Something as devastating as a TKO victory certainly doesn't leave the mind easily, but should Tito truly believe that an unruly cut caused the ensuing stoppage, then perhaps he does feel he has what it takes to dethrone the confident, and certainly rolling Chuck Liddell. If we feel that we can take the former LHW Champion at his word - and we have no reason to believe otherwise - then I suppose we can trust Tito when he says that no such edge exists today.

The Game Plan

Both fighters heading into this fight will come with very different game plans. Liddell more than likely will be looking for the early stoppage; he will want to keep the fight standing, while looking to counter Ortiz with his heavy hands and looping hooks that have ended so many nights before. Liddell, a former National kickboxing Champion, has the striking advantage and will look to capitalize on it.

Ortiz has never been renowned for his boxing, but make no mistake, the 31 year old is no slouch in the stand up game himself. Perhaps his most valuable asset there is defense. Ortiz with high, tight hands, has been able to withstand many combinations and flurries in the past while finding the necessary space and time to look for a take down. This is where Tito will want the game to end up. His explosiveness and athletic ability have always made him dangerous on the ground, and he has often resorted to the ground and pound technique in order to finish his fights. Taking Chuck down will be a tall task. Liddell possess world class take down defense, and even when he has landed on his back, he shows an uncanny ability to stand back up.

If Randy Couture (World-class wrestling) couldn't take down Chuck, then what chance does Tito have, who merely wrestled in Junior College? The chances will be found with patience. At 37 years of age, Liddell's cardio has been questioned on more than one occassion. If Tito can withstand early attempts by Liddell to finish the fight, he may find himself in the favorable positionof being the fresher fighter come the late rounds. At this point, Ortiz - a cardio machine - should be able to impose his will on Chuck, and take the fight where he's most comfortable.

Strength and weight should not a play a sizeable factor in this fight. Both men walk around at roughly 215lbs on a regular week, and have a high level of strength at the 205lbsclass.

Predictions

Tito Ortiz via TKO ref stoppage, late round 4.

I am considerably more divided in picking this fight than I usually am; but I feel like it's time for a change in the guard, and I think that Tito is the man with the best chance to accomplish that.

If Tito was to lose this fight, the UFC would have to bring in more talent at 205 to give Chuck a run, because no one under contract today would have a better chance than a healthy Ortiz.

Liddell has run through a string of easy match-ups (for him) - save Babalu who’s carelessness tossed any chance right out the window - and hasn't been challenged in some time. He's a great fighter, but he's not that great where he should be able to dominate the biggest North American MMA Promotion's 205lbs division in the manner in which he has.

The UFC lacks depth at 205, and it's an issue you can expect to be resolved come mid 2007. With the recent buyouts of the WEC and WFA, Zuffa has taken several big name fighters under contract; perhaps "Rampage" will find himself in a rematch in the not so distant future, and this time, with a title on the line.

Although Zuffa claims that they will continue to run the promotions as separate entities, and not use them as "feeder" organizations for the UFC, many skeptics remain.


- Dayna Deruelle

Watch for possible blogs: The Impact of Cro-cop, and Shockwave NYE

Dayna Deruelle is a regular contributor to SportsNow Insider. He does extensive coverage of Mixed Martial Arts for various outlets.